Express 3-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 28 Nov 2024

📅28/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.04
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.13
No
64%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+5.4pp
22%
Draw
29%
-6.9pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.3pp
36%
BTTS Yes
43%
-6.9pp
64%
BTTS No
57%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Express EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.25/1.18
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -71% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Express
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
25.03.2022 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 Express Express UGA
07.12.2021 Express Express 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Express
3-1
AWAY Mbarara City
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Express vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Express saw off Mbarara City 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Express as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Express had 46% of the ball to Mbarara City's 54%, shots finished 9-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Express had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Express and 0.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of Express vs Mbarara City?

Express 3-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 28/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Express vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Express win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Express 47%, draw 22%, Mbarara City 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Express) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Express) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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