Lazio 3-1 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 5 Dec 2024

Lazio
3-1 HT 2-1
Napoli
📅05/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Lazio vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
25%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.75
Over 2.5
52%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.94
6+ Goals
11%
17.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.31
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
16%
5.05
X/2
9%
6.38
X/X
8%
4.26
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
8%
4.62
2/X
9%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
41%
+9.4pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-5.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
53%
-5.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
47%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lazio v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 34%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.88/0.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.97
-41% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +42%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
29.9 Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards –

Lazio vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Napoli
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.52 xG 1.08
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
371 Passes 606
84% Pass Accuracy 90%
15 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
02.09.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-2 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
03.03.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
03.09.2022 Lazio Lazio 1-2 HT 1-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
27.02.2022 Lazio Lazio 1-2 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
28.11.2021 Napoli Napoli 4-0 HT 3-0 Lazio Lazio İTA

Lazio 3-1 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
3-1
AWAY Napoli
2.11 xG 0.90
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
413 Passes 394
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio saw off Napoli 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lazio had 51% of the ball to Napoli's 49%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 2.11 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lazio and 1.50 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Napoli?

Lazio 3-1 Napoli in the Italy - Cup on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lazio 50%, draw 25%, Napoli 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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