Moreirense 2-1 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Dec 2024

Moreirense
2-1 HT 2-1
Sporting CP
📅05/12/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Moreirense vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
6.35
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
58%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.98
2-3 Goals
45%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 24% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
15.8
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
5%
25.0
X/1
7%
19.2
X/2
13%
3.87
X/X
10%
7.68
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
37%
1.76
2/X
9%
24.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
12%
+5.3pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.5pp
58%
Away Win
70%
-11.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moreirense v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 75%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
0.70/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/0.73
-11% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -8%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
234 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 81%
11.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
13.8 Crosses 21.7
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Moreirense vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.34 xG 1.90
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
235 Passes 520
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.02.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
17.09.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
14.03.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
23.10.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
05.04.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
28.11.2020 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR

Moreirense 2-1 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
2-1
AWAY Sporting CP
0.36 xG 1.83
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
182 Passes 518
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense squeezed past Sporting CP 2-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting CP at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Moreirense had 30% of the ball to Sporting CP's 70%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.36 to 1.83 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sporting CP.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Moreirense and 1.83 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Sporting CP?

Moreirense 2-1 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 17%, draw 25%, Sporting CP 58%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ BTTS No
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