Gzira United 1-2 Santa Lucia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
30%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
58%
-13.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
19%
+11.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gzira United EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Lucia EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.66/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/2.46
+9% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -42%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gzira United
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Santa Lucia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
15.12.2022 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia 0-1 HT 0-1 Gzira United Gzira United MLTP
20.08.2022 Gzira United Gzira United 3-1 HT 3-1 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia MLTP
18.04.2022 Gzira United Gzira United 0-1 HT 0-0 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia MLTAK
18.12.2021 Gzira United Gzira United 2-2 HT 2-2 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gzira United
1-2
AWAY Santa Lucia
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gzira United vs Santa Lucia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Lucia nicked a narrow win over Gzira United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gzira United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gzira United had 61% of the ball to Santa Lucia's 39%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gzira United had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gzira United and 1.00 for Santa Lucia.

What was the final score of Gzira United vs Santa Lucia?

Gzira United 1-2 Santa Lucia in the Malta - Premier League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gzira United vs Santa Lucia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gzira United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gzira United 45%, draw 25%, Santa Lucia 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gzira United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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