Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay Cup, 6 Feb 2024

📅06/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
51%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
5%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
32%
-9.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
51%
Away Win
40%
+11.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 43%
+50% / +50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
253 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.01.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional URUSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
2-1
AWAY Nacional
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
7 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) nicked a narrow win over Nacional 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) had 38% of the ball to Nacional's 62%, shots finished 7-10.

What was the final score of Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Nacional?

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1 Nacional in the Uruguay Cup on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 23%, draw 27%, Nacional 51%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5
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