V-Varen Nagasaki 1-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Feb 2026

V-Varen Nagasaki
1-3 HT 0-1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
📅06/02/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2026

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
13%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.91
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.85
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
7%
6.99
X/2
11%
5.05
X/X
12%
4.92
2/1
5%
32.5
2/2
27%
2.98
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
1.33/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.98
+59% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 83%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
19.8 Crosses 22.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.1

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
423 Passes 492
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
11.08.2018 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
28.04.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-3
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.48 xG 1.57
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 5
458 Passes 330
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima saw off V-Varen Nagasaki 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 56% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 44%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.48 to 1.57.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 2.00 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 06/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 28%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ BTTS Yes
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