Middlesbrough 3-1 Norwich City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 6 Mar 2024

📅06/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.58
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
8%
11.75
X/1
9%
5.86
X/2
9%
6.02
X/X
13%
4.75
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
23%
3.71
2/X
7%
11.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.2pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Norwich City EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +12%
1.44/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.40
-14% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
18.3 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Norwich City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.46 xG 0.94
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
307 Passes 397
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.10.2023 Norwich City Norwich City 1-2 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
14.04.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 5-1 HT 4-1 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
12.11.2022 Norwich City Norwich City 1-2 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
30.01.2021 Norwich City Norwich City 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
21.11.2020 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
30.03.2019 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
3-1
AWAY Norwich City
1.63 xG 0.97
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
571 Passes 311
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Norwich City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough got the better of Norwich City 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Middlesbrough made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 62% of the ball to Norwich City's 38%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.63 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.83 for Norwich City.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Norwich City?

Middlesbrough 3-1 Norwich City in the England - Championship on 06/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Norwich City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 34%, draw 28%, Norwich City 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Norwich City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
6 Mar 2024
22:45 Watford vs Swansea City Analysis →
22:45 Cardiff City vs Huddersfield Town Analysis →
23:00 Queens Park Rangers vs West Bromwich Analysis →