Sporting CP 1-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 6 Mar 2024

Sporting CP
1-1 HT 1-1
Atalanta
📅06/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
UEFA Europa League – 2023/2024

Sporting CP vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.7
No
40%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.36
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.52
6+ Goals
12%
13.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.07
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
11%
12.75
X/1
11%
4.91
X/2
11%
6.57
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.63
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-4.9pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
55%
+5.4pp
40%
BTTS No
45%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 33%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
1.83/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/2.03
-14% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +113% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
23.4 Crosses 15.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sporting CP vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Atalanta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.84 xG 1.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
484 Passes 406
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
30.11.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP AVL
05.10.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 0-2 Atalanta Atalanta AVL

Sporting CP 1-1 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
1-1
AWAY Atalanta
0.22 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 10
358 Passes 367
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP and Atalanta shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Sporting CP had 48% of the ball to Atalanta's 52%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.22 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting CP and 1.50 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Atalanta?

Sporting CP 1-1 Atalanta in the UEFA Europa League on 06/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 38%, draw 31%, Atalanta 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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