Melgar 0-1 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 6 Mar 2025

Melgar
0-1 HT 0-1
Cerro Porteno
📅06/03/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2025

Melgar vs Cerro Porteno Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.8
Draw
36%
3.28
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.68
6+ Goals
7%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
52%
-13.1pp
36%
Draw
27%
+8.7pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.6pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melgar v Cerro Porteno — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +26%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
– Crosses 12.2
– Yellow Cards 3.7

Melgar 0-1 Cerro Porteno — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
0-1
AWAY Cerro Porteno
0.85 xG 1.89
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
388 Passes 197
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 13
39 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno edged past Melgar 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 36% / 25% — and on the day Cerro Porteno made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Melgar had 64% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 36%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 0.85 to 1.89.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Cerro Porteno?

Melgar 0-1 Cerro Porteno in the Copa Libertadores on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Melgar 39%, draw 36%, Cerro Porteno 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Melgar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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