Middlesbrough 2-0 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 6 Apr 2024

Middlesbrough
2-0 HT 1-0
Swansea City
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Middlesbrough vs Swansea City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
22%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.06
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.64 — our 28% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.28
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
17%
4.32
X/2
9%
8.66
X/X
7%
5.87
2/1
7%
20.85
2/2
13%
5.93
2/X
10%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-8.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Swansea City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.63/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.48
-10% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
21.7 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Middlesbrough vs Swansea City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Swansea City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.25
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
270 Passes 477
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-2 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
11.03.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-3 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
27.08.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-1 HT 2-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
23.04.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 1-1 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
04.12.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
06.03.2021 Swansea City Swansea City 2-1 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL

Middlesbrough 2-0 Swansea City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
2-0
AWAY Swansea City
1.17 xG 0.70
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
264 Passes 434
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough beat Swansea City 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 40% of the ball to Swansea City's 60%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.17 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.00 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?

Middlesbrough 2-0 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 44%, draw 25%, Swansea City 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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