Winterthur 2-2 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 6 Apr 2024

Winterthur
2-2 HT 0-0
Lugano
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2023/2024

Winterthur vs Lugano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.28
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.35
X/1
8%
6.11
X/2
13%
5.01
X/X
12%
4.65
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
22%
3.24
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 1/X at 13.35 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
33%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Winterthur v Lugano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 45%
-6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.07/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.05
-16% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
14.8 Crosses 19.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Winterthur vs Lugano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lugano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.01 xG 1.34
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
302 Passes 406
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
30.09.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 2-3 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
14.05.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-1 HT 2-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
05.02.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-0 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
13.11.2022 Lugano Lugano 3-1 HT 2-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
09.11.2022 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSVK

Winterthur 2-2 Lugano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
2-2
AWAY Lugano
0.85 xG 1.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
336 Passes 469
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winterthur and Lugano couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lugano at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Winterthur had 43% of the ball to Lugano's 57%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 0.85 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Winterthur and 1.83 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Lugano?

Winterthur 2-2 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 30%, draw 28%, Lugano 41%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
6 Apr 2024
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