Bayern München U19 2-3 Mainz 05 U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - U19 Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

Bayern München U19
2-3 HT 0-1
Mainz 05 U19
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - U19 Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Bayern München U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.43
No
37%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
4%
X/X
17%
2/1
16%
2/2
20%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-3.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.6pp
63%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.2pp
37%
BTTS No
34%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern München U19 v Mainz 05 U19 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern München U19 EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 U19 EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Bayern München U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern München U19
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05 U19
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 9
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Mainz 05 U19 Mainz 05 U19 1-2 HT 0-1 Bayern München U19 Bayern München U19 ALU19

Bayern München U19 2-3 Mainz 05 U19 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern München U19
2-3
AWAY Mainz 05 U19
0.39 xG 2.70
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 7
362 Passes 265
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayern München U19 vs Mainz 05 U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 U19 nicked a narrow win over Bayern München U19 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Mainz 05 U19 found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayern München U19 had 57% of the ball to Mainz 05 U19's 43%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.39 to 2.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mainz 05 U19's control.

What was the final score of Bayern München U19 vs Mainz 05 U19?

Bayern München U19 2-3 Mainz 05 U19 in the Germany - U19 Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern München U19 vs Mainz 05 U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern München U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Bayern München U19 40%, draw 28%, Mainz 05 U19 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern München U19) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern München U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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