Mazatlan 0-4 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Apr 2024

Mazatlan
0-4 HT 0-1
Pumas UNAM
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mazatlan v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.37/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.39
+22% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
246 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
15.5 Crosses 19.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.65 xG 1.34
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
296 Passes 354
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.07.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
28.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
27.03.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
19.09.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
17.01.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-0 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK

Mazatlan 0-4 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
0-4
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.96 xG 0.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
334 Passes 332
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM swept aside Mazatlan 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mazatlan at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 50% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 50%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.96 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mazatlan and 1.50 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM?

Mazatlan 0-4 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 42%, draw 26%, Pumas UNAM 32%. The final score 0-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mazatlan) ✗ Under 2.5
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