Tijuana 2-3 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 27% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.8pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.58/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.37
-18% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +18%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 71%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
23.9 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Necaxa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.45 xG 0.86
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
346 Passes 304
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.07.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
04.02.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
19.09.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
19.02.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
29.09.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 3-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
24.04.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
2-3
AWAY Necaxa
1.05 xG 1.62
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
352 Passes 232
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 14
30 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa squeezed past Tijuana 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Tijuana had 59% of the ball to Necaxa's 41%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.05 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tijuana and 1.17 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Necaxa?

Tijuana 2-3 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 48%, draw 25%, Necaxa 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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