Penafiel 3-0 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Apr 2024

Penafiel
3-0 HT 0-0
CF Os Belenenses
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Penafiel vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.52
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v CF Os Belenenses — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.38/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.27
-15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +58%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
24.4 Crosses 13.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Penafiel vs CF Os Belenenses Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
0W-2D-1L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.26 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
321 Passes 310
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.11.2023 CF Os Belenenses 2-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
13.02.2023 CF Os Belenenses 2-2 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
22.08.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 3-3 HT 0-2 CF Os Belenenses POR2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel cruised past CF Os Belenenses 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Penafiel as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, CF Os Belenenses led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Penafiel and 2.33 for CF Os Belenenses.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs CF Os Belenenses?

Penafiel 3-0 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 46%, draw 29%, CF Os Belenenses 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penafiel), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penafiel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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