Schalke 04 2-1 Ulm 1846 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.26
6+ Goals
13%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.48
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
18%
4.51
X/2
12%
8.18
X/X
9%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
22.9
2/2
10%
6.16
2/X
8%
14.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.53/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.37
+17% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +85%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
22.3 Crosses 14.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Schalke 04
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Ulm 1846
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 1.18
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
378 Passes 368
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2024 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 0-0 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
08.09.2023 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 2-4 HT 0-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 HAZ
22.12.2020 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 1-3 HT 0-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Schalke 04
2-1
AWAY Ulm 1846
1.87 xG 0.65
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
411 Passes 278
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Schalke 04 vs Ulm 1846
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 edged past Ulm 1846 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Schalke 04 as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Schalke 04 had 57% of the ball to Ulm 1846's 43%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.87 to 0.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Schalke 04's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Schalke 04 had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.00 for Ulm 1846.

What was the final score of Schalke 04 vs Ulm 1846?

Schalke 04 2-1 Ulm 1846 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Schalke 04 vs Ulm 1846?

Before kick-off our model rated a Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Schalke 04 47%, draw 24%, Ulm 1846 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Schalke 04), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Schalke 04) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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