Lanus 1-1 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.19
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.13
No
63%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+5.2pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-2.9pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.0pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
43%
-5.6pp
63%
BTTS No
57%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lanus EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.31/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.99
-2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.6 Crosses 17.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lanus
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Independiente
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.96 xG 0.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
313 Passes 337
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Lanus Lanus 0-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
28.05.2023 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 1-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
14.08.2022 Lanus Lanus 1-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
01.05.2022 Lanus Lanus 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
13.09.2021 Independiente Independiente 0-1 HT 0-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
16.02.2021 Independiente Independiente 0-1 HT 0-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lanus
1-1
AWAY Independiente
1.72 xG 1.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 2
239 Passes 357
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lanus vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lanus and Independiente shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lanus at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Lanus had 42% of the ball to Independiente's 58%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.72 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lanus had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lanus and 0.67 for Independiente.

What was the final score of Lanus vs Independiente?

Lanus 1-1 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lanus vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lanus 47%, draw 28%, Independiente 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lanus), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lanus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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