CA Sarmiento 1-1 River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
44%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.15
6+ Goals
9%
20.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 32% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.27
1/2
11%
27.5
1/X
8%
17.0
X/1
11%
9.5
X/2
11%
4.1
X/X
12%
4.46
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
22%
2.31
2/X
9%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+6.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-9.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY River Plate EU Bookmakers 57%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -27%
0.99/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.98
-20% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +16%
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
211 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 81%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
18.6 Crosses 21.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
1W-1D-4L
AWAY River Plate
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.45 xG 1.92
26% Ball Possession 74%
8 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 7
132 Passes 558
57% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.07.2024 River Plate River Plate 1-0 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
20.03.2023 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
01.08.2022 River Plate River Plate 1-2 HT 0-2 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
01.05.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-7 HT 0-3 River Plate River Plate ARJ
31.08.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 1-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
24.04.2017 River Plate River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
1-1
AWAY River Plate
1.28 xG 1.03
29% Ball Possession 71%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
143 Passes 464
63% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento and River Plate shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was River Plate at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 29% of the ball to River Plate's 71%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.28 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for CA Sarmiento and 2.33 for River Plate.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs River Plate?

CA Sarmiento 1-1 River Plate in the Argentina - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated an River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 27%, draw 29%, River Plate 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (River Plate), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (River Plate) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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