River Plate 1-0 CA Sarmiento — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.32
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.52
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
22.7
X/1
21%
3.31
X/2
7%
19.45
X/X
11%
6.36
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
8%
17.15
2/X
5%
24.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
72%
-13.0pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.8pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+10.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.6pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 12%
-10% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
2.02/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.46
+24% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +15%
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
422 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 67%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
23.2 Crosses 13.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
3W-2D-1L
AWAY CA Sarmiento
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 0.55
70% Ball Possession 30%
20 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
518 Passes 146
84% Pass Accuracy 59%
39 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
20.03.2023 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
01.08.2022 River Plate River Plate 1-2 HT 0-2 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
01.05.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-7 HT 0-3 River Plate River Plate ARJ
31.08.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 1-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
24.04.2017 River Plate River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
09.04.2016 River Plate River Plate 2-2 HT 2-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
1-0
AWAY CA Sarmiento
2.19 xG 0.06
81% Ball Possession 19%
29 Total Shots 2
9 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
659 Passes 95
89% Pass Accuracy 52%
42 Box Touches 5
33 Crosses 3
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH River Plate vs CA Sarmiento
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate squeezed past CA Sarmiento 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had River Plate as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, River Plate had 81% of the ball to CA Sarmiento's 19%, shots finished 29-2, expected goals 2.19 to 0.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold River Plate's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for River Plate and 1.00 for CA Sarmiento.

What was the final score of River Plate vs CA Sarmiento?

River Plate 1-0 CA Sarmiento in the Argentina - Premier League on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs CA Sarmiento?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split River Plate 59%, draw 21%, CA Sarmiento 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (River Plate), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (River Plate) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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