USM Oujda 2-1 Raja Casablanca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Morocco - Cup, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.91
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
45%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.56
Over 2.5
49%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
53%
2.44
No
47%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.76
6+ Goals
10%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
14%
+11.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
45%
Away Win
60%
-14.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
60%
-9.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
40%
+9.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
37%
+15.7pp
47%
BTTS No
63%
-15.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Oujda EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Raja Casablanca EU Bookmakers 64%
+71% / +71% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
3.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+150% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% /
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
POST-MATCH USM Oujda vs Raja Casablanca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Oujda edged past Raja Casablanca 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Raja Casablanca at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

What was the final score of USM Oujda vs Raja Casablanca?

USM Oujda 2-1 Raja Casablanca in the Morocco - Cup on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Oujda vs Raja Casablanca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Raja Casablanca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split USM Oujda 25%, draw 29%, Raja Casablanca 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Raja Casablanca), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Raja Casablanca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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