Sarpsborg 08 1-1 Valerenga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 25% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.19
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
9%
5.4
X/2
13%
6.58
X/X
17%
5.2
2/1
10%
24.2
2/2
17%
4.31
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+5.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Valerenga EU Bookmakers 36%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.31/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.31
-18% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
300 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 74%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
21.1 Crosses 16.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Valerenga
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 1.43
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
343 Passes 413
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 3-2 HT 3-1 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
16.04.2023 Valerenga Valerenga 0-2 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
29.10.2022 Valerenga Valerenga 3-3 HT 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
17.07.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 0-1 HT 0-1 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
28.10.2021 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-1 HT 0-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
01.07.2021 Valerenga Valerenga 4-1 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1-1
AWAY Valerenga
1.07 xG 1.12
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
463 Passes 311
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
50 Box Touches 14
34 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 and Valerenga couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 59% of the ball to Valerenga's 41%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.07 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.83 for Valerenga.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga?

Sarpsborg 08 1-1 Valerenga in the Norway - Eliteserien on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Valerenga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valerenga win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 35%, draw 28%, Valerenga 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Valerenga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valerenga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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