Salernitana 1-2 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
7.18
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
59%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.72
2-3 Goals
35%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
11.3
1/2
11%
21.05
1/X
6%
19.4
X/1
8%
15.0
X/2
24%
3.6
X/X
7%
7.13
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.65
2/X
8%
19.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
11%
+8.5pp
21%
Draw
17%
+3.3pp
59%
Away Win
71%
-11.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 75%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
0.73/2.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.22/0.85
-33% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -12%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
254 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 496 · 84%
14.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.9
16.3 Crosses 17.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atalanta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.95 xG 1.90
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
313 Passes 425
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.12.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 4-1 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
13.05.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
15.01.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 8-2 HT 5-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
02.05.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-1 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
18.09.2021 Salernitana Salernitana 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
18.01.2004 Salernitana Salernitana 1-3 HT 1-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
1-2
AWAY Atalanta
0.50 xG 1.86
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
208 Passes 591
66% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 39
7 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta edged past Salernitana 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Salernitana had 31% of the ball to Atalanta's 69%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.50 to 1.86 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atalanta's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Salernitana and 2.83 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Atalanta?

Salernitana 1-2 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 20%, draw 21%, Atalanta 59%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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