Udinese 1-1 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
46%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.47
1/2
10%
23.6
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
8%
7.52
X/2
19%
4.42
X/X
13%
4.99
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.61
2/X
8%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
26%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-2.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 52%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.15/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.95
-2% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +16%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 453 · 83%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
15.9 Crosses 15.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Napoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.47 xG 2.01
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
302 Passes 525
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.09.2023 Napoli Napoli 4-1 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
04.05.2023 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
12.11.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-2 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
19.03.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
20.09.2021 Udinese Udinese 0-4 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
11.05.2021 Napoli Napoli 5-1 HT 2-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
1-1
AWAY Napoli
0.75 xG 0.83
31% Ball Possession 69%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
204 Passes 519
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese and Napoli shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Udinese had 31% of the ball to Napoli's 69%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.75 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Udinese and 3.17 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Napoli?

Udinese 1-1 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Udinese 27%, draw 28%, Napoli 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Napoli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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