Botafogo 1-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 May 2024

Botafogo
1-2 HT 0-1
Bahia
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Botafogo vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.44
6+ Goals
11%
13.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.44 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.85
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
11%
4.66
X/2
9%
6.95
X/X
16%
4.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.85
2/2
12%
4.97
2/X
8%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.52/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.39
+21% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
19.8 Crosses 18.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Botafogo vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bahia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.97 xG 1.73
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 Passes 381
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
25.04.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
09.11.2020 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
01.10.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
26.09.2019 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
03.05.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 3-2 HT 3-1 Bahia Bahia BR1

Botafogo 1-2 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
1-2
AWAY Bahia
0.88 xG 2.78
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
473 Passes 366
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia squeezed past Botafogo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Botafogo had 55% of the ball to Bahia's 45%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.88 to 2.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bahia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botafogo and 1.33 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Bahia?

Botafogo 1-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 42%, draw 30%, Bahia 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Botafogo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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