Lille 3-4 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 6 May 2024

Lille
3-4 HT 2-0
Lyon
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lille vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.73
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.84
X/2
9%
7.15
X/X
12%
5.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
2/2
11%
4.69
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-3.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.57/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.78
+4% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
17.6 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Lille vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lyon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.49
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
433 Passes 377
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.02.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FRK
26.11.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1
10.03.2023 Lille Lille 3-3 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
08.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 2-2 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FRK
30.10.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
27.02.2022 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1

Lille 3-4 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
3-4
AWAY Lyon
0.88 xG 2.45
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
354 Passes 463
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lille vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon nicked a narrow win over Lille 4-3 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lille at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lille had 44% of the ball to Lyon's 56%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.88 to 2.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lyon's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lille and 1.33 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Lille vs Lyon?

Lille 3-4 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lille 48%, draw 27%, Lyon 26%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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