Lyon 2-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 7 Feb 2024

Lyon
2-1 HT 1-0
Lille
📅07/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Cup – 2023/2024

Lyon vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.72
6+ Goals
11%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.62
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
13%
6.43
X/2
14%
4.9
X/X
13%
4.22
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
19%
3.14
2/X
6%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+4.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.61
+35% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -74% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 80%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
15.0 Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Lyon vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lille
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 1.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
381 Passes 415
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1
10.03.2023 Lille Lille 3-3 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
08.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 2-2 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FRK
30.10.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
27.02.2022 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
12.12.2021 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 2-1 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
2-1
AWAY Lille
1.77 xG 1.54
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
321 Passes 476
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
28 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon edged past Lille 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Lyon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lyon had 42% of the ball to Lille's 58%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.77 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lyon and 1.33 for Lille.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Lille?

Lyon 2-1 Lille in the France - Cup on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lyon 35%, draw 27%, Lille 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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