PSG 3-1 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 7 Feb 2024

PSG
3-1 HT 2-0
Brest
📅07/02/2024 · 🕒23:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Cup – 2023/2024

PSG vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.34
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.58
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
19.3
X/1
18%
3.6
X/2
8%
16.0
X/X
11%
7.64
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.2
2/2
8%
11.55
2/X
7%
19.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.2 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
70%
-16.0pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.1pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+8.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 16%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
2.06/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/4.83
-6% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +108% / +15%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
500 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
15.4 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

PSG vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Brest
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.91 xG 1.06
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
584 Passes 304
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2024 PSG PSG 2-2 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
29.10.2023 Brest Brest 2-3 HT 1-2 PSG PSG FR1
11.03.2023 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 1-1 PSG PSG FR1
10.09.2022 PSG PSG 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
15.01.2022 PSG PSG 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
20.08.2021 Brest Brest 2-4 HT 1-2 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 3-1 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
3-1
AWAY Brest
2.40 xG 0.55
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
524 Passes 336
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
37 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSG vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG got the better of Brest 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, PSG had 58% of the ball to Brest's 42%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.40 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for PSG and 1.17 for Brest.

What was the final score of PSG vs Brest?

PSG 3-1 Brest in the France - Cup on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split PSG 54%, draw 25%, Brest 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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