PSG 2-2 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Jan 2024

PSG
2-2 HT 2-0
Brest
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

PSG vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.6
2-3 Goals
36%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.27
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.6 — our 27% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.76
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
17.3
X/1
18%
3.68
X/2
11%
12.9
X/X
11%
6.64
2/1
8%
20.7
2/2
9%
9.63
2/X
8%
17.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-13.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.5pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+10.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.87/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.82
+16% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +26%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
486 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
15.9 Crosses 18.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

PSG vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Brest
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.97 xG 1.17
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
614 Passes 294
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Brest Brest 2-3 HT 1-2 PSG PSG FR1
11.03.2023 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 1-1 PSG PSG FR1
10.09.2022 PSG PSG 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
15.01.2022 PSG PSG 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
20.08.2021 Brest Brest 2-4 HT 1-2 PSG PSG FR1
23.05.2021 Brest Brest 0-2 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 2-2 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
2-2
AWAY Brest
2.08 xG 0.71
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 0
435 Passes 364
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSG vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG and Brest shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was PSG at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, PSG had 54% of the ball to Brest's 46%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 2.08 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for PSG and 0.83 for Brest.

What was the final score of PSG vs Brest?

PSG 2-2 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split PSG 50%, draw 24%, Brest 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✗ BTTS No
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