Lorient 3-3 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
5.42
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.65
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
14%
5.76
X/2
11%
4.77
X/X
13%
3.61
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
15%
3.56
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.6pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lorient EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.02/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/0.55
-3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
16.3 Crosses 23.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lorient
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Le Havre
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
379 Passes 326
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 3-0 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
29.07.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre HAZ
19.10.2019 Le Havre Le Havre 2-2 HT 1-2 Lorient Lorient FR2
17.05.2019 Le Havre Le Havre 2-3 HT 1-2 Lorient Lorient FR2
28.07.2018 Lorient Lorient 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
05.03.2018 Lorient Lorient 1-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lorient
3-3
AWAY Le Havre
1.03 xG 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
298 Passes 395
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lorient vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient and Le Havre couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lorient had 43% of the ball to Le Havre's 57%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.03 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lorient had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lorient and 1.17 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Lorient vs Le Havre?

Lorient 3-3 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lorient vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lorient 37%, draw 28%, Le Havre 35%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lorient) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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