Toulouse 0-2 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.32
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 28% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.15
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
12%
7.01
X/2
16%
4.51
X/X
17%
4.65
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
13%
2.78
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+5.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-8.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.3pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 49%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.26/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.32
-26% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +0%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 81%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.4 Crosses 19.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lens
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.58 xG 2.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
333 Passes 337
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
02.05.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 0-1 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
28.10.2022 Lens Lens 3-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.03.2015 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
24.10.2014 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-2 Lens Lens FR1
12.03.2011 Lens Lens 0-1 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
0-2
AWAY Lens
1.87 xG 0.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 7
368 Passes 327
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens got the better of Toulouse 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 30% / 37% — and on the day Lens made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Toulouse had 53% of the ball to Lens's 47%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.87 to 0.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Toulouse.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Toulouse and 1.50 for Lens.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Lens?

Toulouse 0-2 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 33%, draw 30%, Lens 37%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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