Montpellier 0-0 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.29
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
32%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 31% vs market 26.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.48
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
16%
7.21
X/2
9%
4.4
X/X
17%
4.44
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
15%
2.74
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
27%
+10.5pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.9pp
32%
Away Win
46%
-14.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 50%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.31/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.22
-12% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 83%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
19.1 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Lille
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.61 xG 1.53
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
259 Passes 434
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.09.2023 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
16.04.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
04.09.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-3 HT 1-1 Lille Lille FR1
12.02.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
29.08.2021 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
16.04.2021 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
0-0
AWAY Lille
0.67 xG 0.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
273 Passes 481
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier and Lille fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Montpellier had 39% of the ball to Lille's 61%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.67 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Montpellier and 1.67 for Lille.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Lille?

Montpellier 0-0 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 37%, draw 31%, Lille 32%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Montpellier) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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