Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 May 2024

Pachuca
2-1 HT 0-0
Necaxa
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒05:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Pachuca vs Necaxa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.96
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.35
X/1
14%
3.9
X/2
7%
11.05
X/X
9%
5.8
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.85
2/2
10%
8.28
2/X
6%
16.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-9.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.7pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Necaxa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.99/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.41
+8% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
22.5 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Pachuca vs Necaxa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Necaxa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 0.99
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
316 Passes 214
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
01.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
30.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
28.07.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
06.02.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 0-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
24.09.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
2-1
AWAY Necaxa
3.31 xG 0.43
70% Ball Possession 30%
20 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
375 Passes 105
83% Pass Accuracy 54%
34 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca nicked a narrow win over Necaxa 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Pachuca had 70% of the ball to Necaxa's 30%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 3.31 to 0.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pachuca's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pachuca and 1.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Necaxa?

Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 51%, draw 24%, Necaxa 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5
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