Necaxa 1-1 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 24 Feb 2024

Necaxa
1-1 HT 1-0
Pachuca
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Necaxa vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.95
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
10%
10.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 25% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.3pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.22/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.30
+5% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
21.3 Crosses 18.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Necaxa vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pachuca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 1.89
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
222 Passes 273
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
30.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
28.07.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
06.02.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 0-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
24.09.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
05.03.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 2-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Necaxa 1-1 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-1
AWAY Pachuca
0.94 xG 1.48
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
167 Passes 432
64% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa and Pachuca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Necaxa had 33% of the ball to Pachuca's 67%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.94 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Necaxa and 1.50 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Pachuca?

Necaxa 1-1 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 40%, draw 25%, Pachuca 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Necaxa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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