06/07/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Marupe vs Ogre United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
3%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
22%
Draw
27%
26%
Away Win
22%
49%
Under 2.5
56%
51%
Over 2.5
44%
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
55%
BTTS No
53%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Marupe v Ogre United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Marupe
EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY
Ogre United
EU Bookmakers 25%
+42% /
+42%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-28% /
-28%
2.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.00/2.00
-13%
/
+21%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
+1%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
14
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
344 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
286 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Marupe vs Ogre United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Marupe squeezed past Ogre United 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Marupe as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Marupe vs Ogre United?
Marupe 3-2 Ogre United in the Latvia - 1st Division on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Marupe vs Ogre United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Marupe 51%, draw 22%, Ogre United 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marupe), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Marupe)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
LET1
More Latvia - 1st Division
6 Jul 2024