Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 Riga FC II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 6 Jul 2024

📅06/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
55%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
3%
X/1
5%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
39%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+8.3pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.6pp
55%
Away Win
68%
-13.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC II EU Bookmakers 72%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.54/2.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.45/0.41
+57% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +66% / +150%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Riga FC II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 5.67
07.10.2023 Riga FC II Riga FC II 11-2 HT 4-1 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
03.06.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 0-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC II Riga FC II LET1
13.05.2022 Riga FC II Riga FC II 5-0 HT 2-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Riga FC II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC II swept aside Progress / AFA Olaine 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Riga FC II as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Riga FC II led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Progress / AFA Olaine and 5.67 for Riga FC II.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Riga FC II?

Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 Riga FC II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Riga FC II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC II win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 23%, draw 23%, Riga FC II 55%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC II), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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