Ferroviaria vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ferroviaria v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals
Ferroviaria 1-3 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics
Vila Nova beat Ferroviaria 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Ferroviaria at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Ferroviaria had 61% of the ball to Vila Nova's 39%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.73 to 2.36.
What was the final score of Ferroviaria vs Vila Nova?
Ferroviaria 1-3 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ferroviaria vs Vila Nova?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ferroviaria win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Ferroviaria 47%, draw 29%, Vila Nova 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.