Jaro 1-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.9
Over
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.44
2-3
44%
1.84
4-5
18%
3.61
6+
8%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.44 — our 30% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.31
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
10%
4.29
X/2
9%
9.02
X/X
12%
5.12
2/1
12%
23.75
2/2
13%
7.19
2/X
8%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jaro The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn The Market 25%
-25% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.20/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.39
+0% / -61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 77%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
20.0 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jaro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.39 xG 0.60
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
241 Passes 475
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-2 HT 0-1 Jaro Jaro FİN
17.09.2015 Jaro Jaro 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
19.07.2015 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 4-3 HT 3-1 Jaro Jaro FİN
12.04.2015 Jaro Jaro 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
18.10.2014 Jaro Jaro 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
15.06.2014 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 4-2 HT 1-2 Jaro Jaro FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jaro
1-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.50 xG 2.11
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 4
463 Passes 255
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 20
44 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jaro and IFK Mariehamn shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Jaro at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Jaro had 62% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 38%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 2.50 to 2.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Jaro and 1.50 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn?

Jaro 1-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jaro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Jaro 47%, draw 26%, IFK Mariehamn 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Jaro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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