Chapecoense 0-1 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 6 Aug 2024

📅06/08/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.36
Over 2.5
33%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.33
No
62%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.91
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
13%
7.2
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
21%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+4.6pp
32%
Draw
32%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.0pp
67%
Under 2.5
70%
-2.6pp
33%
Over 2.5
30%
+2.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
39%
-1.3pp
62%
BTTS No
61%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -15%
1.18/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.90
-17% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
23.3 Crosses 19.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Mirassol FC
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.69 xG 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
276 Passes 394
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
15.04.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
0-1
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.36 xG 0.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
305 Passes 384
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC edged past Chapecoense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Mirassol FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chapecoense had 45% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 55%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.36 to 0.17 — on chances, Chapecoense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mirassol FC led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Chapecoense and 1.00 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Mirassol FC?

Chapecoense 0-1 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 06/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 39%, draw 32%, Mirassol FC 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chapecoense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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