Vila Nova 2-2 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 6 Aug 2024

📅06/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
4.96
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.42 — our 37% vs market 34.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.1pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.0pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.9pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.6pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.24/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.28
-22% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.7 Crosses 21.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Paysandu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
290 Passes 274
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
10 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.11.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRVK
19.10.2020 Paysandu Paysandu 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRE3
15.08.2020 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRE3
03.11.2018 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
13.07.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 1-2 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
04.11.2017 Paysandu Paysandu 1-1 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-2
AWAY Paysandu
0.65 xG 0.41
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
186 Passes 210
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 6
30 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova and Paysandu shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 28%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vila Nova had 49% of the ball to Paysandu's 51%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.65 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vila Nova and 0.50 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Paysandu?

Vila Nova 2-2 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 06/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 39%, draw 32%, Paysandu 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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