Toluca vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Sporting Kansas City — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Sporting Kansas City Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
4-1
HT 2-0
Sporting Kansas City
CONLK
0-2
HT 0-1
Sporting Kansas City
CON
3-0
HT 1-0
Toluca
CON
Toluca 2-1 Sporting Kansas City — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca squeezed past Sporting Kansas City 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Toluca had 53% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 47%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.64 to 1.93.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toluca and 2.00 for Sporting Kansas City.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Sporting Kansas City?
Toluca 2-1 Sporting Kansas City in the Concacaf League Cup on 06/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Sporting Kansas City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Toluca 45%, draw 24%, Sporting Kansas City 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.