Aberdeen 3-2 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 6 Oct 2024

Aberdeen
3-2 HT 1-1
Hearts
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Aberdeen vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 29% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.47
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
13%
4.2
X/2
9%
7.92
X/X
14%
5.07
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
13%
5.93
2/X
5%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.6pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aberdeen v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.65/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.31
-10% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
22.4 Crosses 16.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Aberdeen vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberdeen
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 1.61
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
227 Passes 317
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 0-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
09.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-1 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
16.09.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
20.05.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-1 HT 1-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
18.03.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-0 HT 3-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
18.01.2023 Hearts Hearts 5-0 HT 4-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP

Aberdeen 3-2 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aberdeen
3-2
AWAY Hearts
0.69 xG 2.02
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
421 Passes 293
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Aberdeen vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen squeezed past Hearts 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aberdeen as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Aberdeen had 56% of the ball to Hearts's 44%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.69 to 2.02 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hearts.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aberdeen and 2.00 for Hearts.

What was the final score of Aberdeen vs Hearts?

Aberdeen 3-2 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberdeen vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Aberdeen 47%, draw 25%, Hearts 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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