Hearts 2-0 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 27 Jan 2024

Hearts
2-0 HT 0-0
Aberdeen
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2023/2024

Hearts vs Aberdeen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.69
6+ Goals
12%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.69 — our 25% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.88
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
12%
4.55
X/2
11%
6.75
X/X
9%
4.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.0
2/2
13%
5.0
2/X
8%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v Aberdeen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -20%
1.47/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.61
+24% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
330 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 65%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.6 Crosses 19.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Hearts vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.57 xG 1.34
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
321 Passes 221
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-1 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
16.09.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
20.05.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-1 HT 1-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
18.03.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-0 HT 3-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
18.01.2023 Hearts Hearts 5-0 HT 4-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
16.10.2022 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP

Hearts 2-0 Aberdeen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
2-0
AWAY Aberdeen
1.57 xG 1.01
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 7
287 Passes 221
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 29
25 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts saw off Aberdeen 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Hearts had 55% of the ball to Aberdeen's 45%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.57 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hearts and 1.33 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Aberdeen?

Hearts 2-0 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hearts 41%, draw 27%, Aberdeen 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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