Bristol City 1-1 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 6 Oct 2024

Bristol City
1-1 HT 0-0
Cardiff City
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Bristol City vs Cardiff City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.21
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.66
6+ Goals
11%
15.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
15.6
X/1
18%
3.85
X/2
11%
8.92
X/X
8%
5.09
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
8%
7.11
2/X
6%
16.25
Value flag · 1/X at 15.6 — our 12% vs market 3.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol City v Cardiff City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 25%
+13% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.93/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.37
+16% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
319 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
24.9 Crosses 14.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Bristol City vs Cardiff City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol City
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.08 xG 0.80
50% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
308 Passes 283
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Bristol City Bristol City 0-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
28.10.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
04.03.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
21.08.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
22.01.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 3-2 HT 1-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
28.08.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 0-1 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL

Bristol City 1-1 Cardiff City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
1-1
AWAY Cardiff City
1.01 xG 1.34
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
419 Passes 273
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City and Cardiff City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bristol City at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bristol City had 59% of the ball to Cardiff City's 41%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.01 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bristol City and 1.33 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Cardiff City?

Bristol City 1-1 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 49%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bristol City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bristol City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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