Lazio (K) 3-2 Sassuolo (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒13:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.8
Draw
18%
3.64
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
24%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
32%
+8.9pp
18%
Draw
24%
-6.1pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio (K) EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo (K) EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
286 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio (K)
3-2
AWAY Sassuolo (K)
2.91 xG 0.78
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
251 Passes 153
72% Pass Accuracy 60%
40 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lazio (K) vs Sassuolo (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio (K) edged past Sassuolo (K) 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 18% / 41% — and on the day Lazio (K) made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lazio (K) had 62% of the ball to Sassuolo (K)'s 38%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.91 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lazio (K)'s control.

What was the final score of Lazio (K) vs Sassuolo (K)?

Lazio (K) 3-2 Sassuolo (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio (K) vs Sassuolo (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lazio (K) 41%, draw 18%, Sassuolo (K) 41%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (41/18/41) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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