Lierse Kempenzonen 4-0 Boussu Dour Borinage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.79
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.79/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.38
+52% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +28%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 72%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
24.1 Crosses 16.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.70 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
327 Passes 258
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 3-1 HT 1-0 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage BEL2
17.09.2023 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage 2-0 HT 1-0 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
4-0
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage
1.95 xG 1.06
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
429 Passes 199
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lierse Kempenzonen vs Boussu Dour Borinage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lierse Kempenzonen ran out comfortable winners over Boussu Dour Borinage 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Lierse Kempenzonen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lierse Kempenzonen had 65% of the ball to Boussu Dour Borinage's 35%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.95 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lierse Kempenzonen and 1.50 for Boussu Dour Borinage.

What was the final score of Lierse Kempenzonen vs Boussu Dour Borinage?

Lierse Kempenzonen 4-0 Boussu Dour Borinage in the Belgium - 1st Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lierse Kempenzonen vs Boussu Dour Borinage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lierse Kempenzonen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lierse Kempenzonen 39%, draw 26%, Boussu Dour Borinage 35%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lierse Kempenzonen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lierse Kempenzonen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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