Dnepr Mogilev 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 6 Oct 2024

Dnepr Mogilev
0-3 HT 0-1
Naftan Novopolotsk
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Belarus - Premier League – 2024

Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Novopolotsk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.06
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
12%
16.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dnepr Mogilev v Naftan Novopolotsk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dnepr Mogilev EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.49/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.16/0.68
+21% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -87% / +80%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Novopolotsk Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dnepr Mogilev
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
09.10.2021 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 1-1 HT 1-0 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev BLR1
24.07.2021 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev 3-0 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
06.05.2021 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-2 HT 0-2 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev BLR1
15.06.2014 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev 0-2 HT 0-2 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR

Dnepr Mogilev 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dnepr Mogilev
0-3
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naftan Novopolotsk cruised past Dnepr Mogilev 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Naftan Novopolotsk found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Dnepr Mogilev had 52% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 48%, shots finished 13-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Dnepr Mogilev had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dnepr Mogilev and 0.75 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Dnepr Mogilev 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dnepr Mogilev win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dnepr Mogilev 38%, draw 26%, Naftan Novopolotsk 36%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Dnepr Mogilev), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dnepr Mogilev) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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