Mirassol FC 1-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
64%
1.56
Over
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
37%
2.42
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
16%
4.96
6+
8%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.42 — our 37% vs market 34.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.7pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.02/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.04
-14% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
19.5 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirassol FC
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.84 xG 0.86
66% Ball Possession 34%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
425 Passes 192
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.06.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
18.08.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 2-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
07.05.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
1-0
AWAY Vila Nova
0.62 xG 0.05
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 3
1 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
351 Passes 213
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 4
30 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC squeezed past Vila Nova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mirassol FC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 59% of the ball to Vila Nova's 41%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 0.62 to 0.05.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mirassol FC and 1.33 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Vila Nova?

Mirassol FC 1-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 46%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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