Vila Nova 1-0 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 Jun 2024

📅21/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.26
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.45
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+4.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.6pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.35/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.75
-7% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 77%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.0 Crosses 18.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.48 xG 0.28
28% Ball Possession 72%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
162 Passes 437
64% Pass Accuracy 82%
6 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 2-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
07.05.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-0
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.25 xG 1.41
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
251 Passes 402
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova squeezed past Mirassol FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Vila Nova found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vila Nova had 40% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 60%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.25 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vila Nova and 0.50 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Mirassol FC?

Vila Nova 1-0 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 39%, draw 29%, Mirassol FC 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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