Hajduk Split 4-0 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.29
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
19%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.4
No
54%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 27% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
73%
-15.4pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.4pp
19%
Away Win
9%
+10.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
38%
+8.7pp
54%
BTTS No
62%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 11%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.57/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.71
-12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +11%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
22.3 Crosses 11.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sibenik
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.03 xG 0.68
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
390 Passes 274
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
24.05.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIRK
01.04.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 2-3 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
22.01.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
09.09.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 1-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
09.04.2022 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
4-0
AWAY Sibenik
2.45 xG 0.30
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 4
430 Passes 294
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
46 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split swept aside Sibenik 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 58% of the ball to Sibenik's 42%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 2.45 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.83 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Sibenik?

Hajduk Split 4-0 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 58%, draw 23%, Sibenik 19%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
6 Oct 2024
17:00 NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb Analysis →