NK Varazdin 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
6.35
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
50%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.36
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 29% vs market 24.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
13%
+9.8pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.9pp
50%
Away Win
67%
-16.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 71%
+11% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
0.74/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.75
-2% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 79%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
11.5 Crosses 18.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.60 xG 1.90
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
274 Passes 454
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
18.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
26.04.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
19.02.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
16.10.2022 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
0-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.43 xG 0.90
58% Ball Possession 42%
6 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
328 Passes 202
77% Pass Accuracy 63%
6 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb edged past NK Varazdin 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 58% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 42%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 0.43 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.83 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 23%, draw 27%, Dinamo Zagreb 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
6 Oct 2024
19:30 Hajduk Split vs Sibenik Analysis →